Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain
7/29/24
It looks like the break in the Cattle Markets could have begun today. October'24 Live Cattle were 1.75 lower today and settled at 186.80. Today's high was 188.97 ½ and the 1-month high is 189.05. Today's low was 186.12 ½ and the 1-month low is 181.72 ½. Since 6/28 October'24 Live Cattle are 2.50 higher or almost 1 ½%. The Feeders started their journey lower today as well. September'24 Feeder Cattle were 3.52 ½ lower today and settled at 256.07 ½. Today's high was 260.55 and the 1-month high is 264.30. Today's low was 255.05 and the 1-month low is 253.85. Since 6/28 September'24 Feeder Cattle are 3.50 lower or almost 1 ½%. The Hogs were crushed today as well. October'24 Lean Hogs were 3.37 ½ lower today and settled at 74.82 ½. Today's high was 77.80 and the 1-month high is 78.70. Today's low was 74.45 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 68.05. Since 6/28 October'24 Lean Hogs are 77 ½ cents lower or just over 1%. The Cattle Markets were pushed lower today. October'24 Fats were over two dollars lower at one point today, while the September'24 Feeders were over 4 ½ dollars lower on the day's lows. They both bounced off the lows, but I still feel they are heading lower, through the 1-month low of 181.72 ½ and toward the 200 Day moving average of 181.06 for October'24 Live Cattle. The 100 Day Moving average is 181.66 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 181.59. The 52-week low is 168.50. If the Fats break through those level, then the Feeders will break as well. I feel that the Feeders can break another 7% from the current levels. The Hogs were hit hard today, and if the Cattle continue to break, I feel they will drag the Hogs down with them.
This could be the washout I have been talking about in the Soybean Market. August'24 Soybeans were 46 ¾ cents lower on the day's lows, September'24 Soybeans traded down to 1008 ½, and November'24 Soybeans traded as low as 1018. November'24 Soybeans were 9 cents lower today and settled at 1039 ½. Today's high was 1044 ½ and the 1-month high is 1133 ¾. Today's low was 1018 and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low as well. Since 6/28 November'24 Soybeans are 65 ¾ cents lower or almost 6%. The Corn Market bounced off the lows. December'24 Corn was 2 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 412 1/4. Today's high was 413 and the 1-month high is 426 ½. Today's low was 405 ½ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 403. Since 6/28 December'24 Corn is 9 ¼ cents lower or more than 2%. The Wheat Market set new lows today. September'24 Wheat was 7 ½ cents higher today and settled at 531. Today's high was 532 ¾ and the 1-month high is 592 ¼. Today's low was 514 ¼ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low as well. Since 6/28 September'24 Wheat is 43 cents lower or 7 ½%. I have been Bearish the Soybean Market since 1401. Today when the November'24 Soybeans were trading 1027, I started taking some shorts off. If China decides to buy November'24 Soybeans at these prices, the market will rally for a while. Export numbers as a whole were good today as well. There was some heat taken a few times over the last 12 months, but that's why I use the Option Markets. Knowledge when combined with testicular fortitude is a winning combination. The Beans can still break from here, but these are good levels to take some shorts off, and even put on some upside positions, always in the Option Markets, which I did today. If The Soybeans have bottomed out for the short or long term, I Feel the Corn and Wheat Markets can now run higher. The 100-Day moving average for December'24 Corn is 459, and the 100-Day moving average for September'24 Wheat is 608. Give me a call if you want to talk about the Markets or have any questions. Next year's Soybean Crop in Brazil is expected to be huge as well. Have a great day.
-Bill
I have market commentary and option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
Listen Live at 7:25am on
Tuesday-Friday
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.rage for September'24 Wheat is 608. Give me a call if you want to talk about the Markets or have any questions. Next year's Soybean Crop in Brazil is expected to be huge as well. Have a great day.
On the date of publication, Bill Allen did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.