#5 | Cause

As they say, records are meant to be broken and that is exactly what happened across the United States the second and third weeks of January.

Record-low temps made the ten-day stretch from January 12 into the following week one of the coldest on record from the Northern Plains into the Midwest, Southern Plains, South and Eastern Corn Belt. 

Sub-zero temperatures and large amounts of snow slowed grain movement and caused major operational issues at processors across the country.

#4 | Effect

Case in point: weekly ethanol production plunged more than 22% in the week ending January 19, as bitter cold temps created operational nightmares for plants across the Midwest and Upper Plains. The last time we saw a drop anywhere close to this magnitude was in late December of 2022 where sub-zero temps were also to blame.

Production isn't the only thing that has plunged in recent weeks as the cost of corn per gallon of ethanol produced continues to slide. At 88 cents per gallon of ethanol, the cost of corn is nearly $1.00 off the summer highs and the lowest since late 2020.

#3 | Who's the boss?

Is it meal? 

Is it oil?

Today, soybean oil plays a more significant role in the soy complex than it ever has before, although recent new lows in meal and setbacks in oil have left us all wondering if we will ever turnaround.

#2 | We're #2!

After two consecutive calendar years of noteworthy corn exports to China, the United States lost rank in a big way in 2023, after the commodity-importing goliath approved Brazilian corn for import in the summer of 2022. Miss the last 5 Spot? Click HERE for a refresher.

A full year+ would pass before Brazilian corn began dominating the Chinese import program - after the country smashed monthly export records from August through November on the back of last year’s record crop.

Hold that thought…

#1 | One Big Year

China’s imports of Brazilian corn were essentially nonexistent during the spring and summer months (chart above) as soybeans always dominate the South American giant’s export program prior to Safrinha corn harvest getting underway in June.

Records are meant to be broken, however, and that is just what Brazil did after harvesting a record crop last year, smashing export records for four months in a row, all while their newest corn trade partner welcomed inexpensive bushels with open arms.

Brazil's record crop and new-found business with China helped push its 2022/23 marketing year exports to a record 2.244 billion bushels (57mmt), surpassing the United States for the first time in history to become the largest corn exporter in the world.

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